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एनएफएल टीज़र

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यह पेज काफी पुराना और सीमित दायरे का है। मेरी सलाह है कि आप NFL में टीज़र बेट्स पर मेरे पेज पर जाएँ।

परिचय

टीज़र, पार्ले बेट जैसा ही होता है, जिसमें खिलाड़ी कई दांवों को एक साथ जोड़ता है और संचयी बेट तभी जीतता है जब सभी दांव एक साथ जीतते हैं। टीज़र, पार्ले से इस मायने में अलग है कि पॉइंट स्प्रेड सभी पिक्स पर खिलाड़ी के पक्ष में एक निश्चित संख्या में पॉइंट्स (आमतौर पर 6 से 7 पॉइंट्स) तक बढ़ जाता है। खिलाड़ी इन पॉइंट्स के लिए पार्ले बेट की तुलना में बहुत कम जीत के रूप में भुगतान करता है। उदाहरण के लिए, 2-टीम पार्ले में आमतौर पर 13 से 5 पॉइंट्स मिलते हैं, लेकिन 2-टीम 6-पॉइंट टीज़र में आमतौर पर 10 से 11 पॉइंट्स मिलते हैं। टीज़र में, प्रत्येक पिक को एक "टीम" कहा जाता है। मुझे हमेशा यह भ्रामक लगता था, क्योंकि खिलाड़ी ओवर और अंडर बेट्स भी चुन सकता है। व्यक्तिगत रूप से, मैं "पिक" शब्द का उपयोग करना पसंद करता हूँ, लेकिन इस पृष्ठ पर मैं "पिक" और "टीम" शब्दों का एक-दूसरे के स्थान पर उपयोग कर रहा हूँ।

पार्ले की तरह, बेट जीतने के लिए हर पिक जीतनी ज़रूरी है। अगर एक या एक से ज़्यादा इवेंट पुश में खत्म होते हैं, तो उन पिक्स को नज़रअंदाज़ कर दिया जाता है। उदाहरण के लिए, अगर 4-टीम वाले टीज़र में 3 जीत और 1 पुश होता है, तो उसे 3-टीम वाले टीज़र के रूप में भुगतान किया जाएगा। दुर्लभ स्थिति में, जब टीज़र सिर्फ़ एक पिक तक सिमट जाता है, तो आमतौर पर उसे पुश किया जाता है, क्योंकि वन-टीम टीज़र जैसी कोई चीज़ नहीं होती। इसका एक अपवाद द ग्रीक इंटरनेट स्पोर्ट्स बुक है, जो हारने वाली पिक वाले किसी भी टीज़र को हार मानता है। वरना, अगर पहला गेम हार जाता है, तो टीज़र बेट को न छोड़ें, क्योंकि अगर बाकी सभी पिक पुश में बदल जाएँ, तब भी वह पुश ही रहेगा।

आइए एक उदाहरण देखें। बगल में दी गई तस्वीर 2004 में मेरे द्वारा लगाए गए एक टीज़र दांव की है। उस हफ़्ते सामान्य पॉइंट स्प्रेड ये रहे होंगे:

  • बंगाल्स +2.5
  • बुक्स -8
  • चीफ्स +2.5
  • कोल्ट्स -8.5

हालाँकि, चूँकि मैंने 6-पॉइंट टीज़र किया था, इसलिए सभी पॉइंट स्प्रेड मेरे पक्ष में छह अंक बढ़ गए, जो कि निम्नलिखित है:

  • बंगाल्स +8.5
  • बुक्स -2
  • चीफ्स +8.5
  • कोल्ट्स -2.5

अगर मैंने इन चारों स्प्रेड को कवर किया होता, तो मुझे 3 से 1 का भुगतान मिलता। जब से मैंने वह दांव लगाया है, टीज़र ऑड्स कम हो गए हैं। उदाहरण के लिए, सनकोस्ट अब 4-टीम 6-पॉइंट टीज़र के लिए केवल 5 से 2 का भुगतान करता है। ऊपर दिए गए टीज़र का नतीजा यह है कि मैंने दो जीते और दो हारे, इसलिए दांव हार गया।

एकल पिक के जीतने की संभावना

टीज़र का विश्लेषण शुरू करने के लिए सबसे अच्छा तरीका किसी भी पिक के जीतने की संभावना का पता लगाना है। मैंने 2000 और 2011 सीज़न के बीच हर नियमित सीज़न NFL गेम का विश्लेषण किया। फिर मैंने दिए गए अंकों की संख्या और पिक के घरेलू टीम, बाहरी टीम, अंडर या ओवर होने के आधार पर परिणामों को विभाजित किया। "सभी पक्ष" कॉलम स्प्रेड के विरुद्ध सभी खेलों के दोनों पक्षों का औसत है।

सबसे आम टीज़र कार्ड खिलाड़ी को 6, 6.5, या 7 अतिरिक्त अंक देते हैं। हालाँकि, मैंने कुछ ऐसे टीज़र कार्ड भी देखे हैं जिनमें अंकों की संख्या असामान्य होती है। पूरी जानकारी के लिए, मैंने 0 से लेकर 14 अंकों वाले टीज़र कार्ड तक, सभी का विश्लेषण किया है, हालाँकि इनमें से कई आपको कभी देखने को नहीं मिलेंगे।

टीज़र औसत संभावनाएँ

अतिरिक्त अंक सभी होम सभी दूर सभी दिशाएं सभी के अंतर्गत भर बर सभी योग
14 85.85% 85.00% 85.43% 83.70% 87.44% 85.57%
13.5 84.89% 84.05% 84.47% 82.86% 86.69% 84.78%
13 84.16% 83.26% 83.71% 81.94% 85.78% 83.86%
12.5 83.15% 82.49% 82.82% 80.87% 84.85% 82.86%
12 82.43% 81.77% 82.10% 79.92% 83.73% 81.83%
11.5 81.48% 80.91% 81.20% 78.83% 82.81% 80.82%
11 80.74% 80.32% 80.53% 78.10% 82.09% 80.09%
10.5 79.53% 79.31% 79.42% 76.99% 81.01% 79.00%
10 78.32% 77.91% 78.11% 75.94% 79.59% 77.76%
9.5 76.82% 76.61% 76.71% 74.92% 78.39% 76.66%
9 75.88% 75.70% 75.79% 73.73% 77.39% 75.56%
8.5 74.74% 74.87% 74.81% 72.68% 76.12% 74.40%
8 73.65% 73.85% 73.75% 71.60% 74.75% 73.17%
7.5 72.28% 72.64% 72.46% 70.36% 73.14% 71.75%
7 71.06% 71.56% 71.31% 69.03% 71.61% 70.31%
6.5 69.67% 70.03% 69.85% 67.71% 69.88% 68.79%
6 68.09% 68.48% 68.28% 66.24% 68.18% 67.21%
5.5 66.30% 66.61% 66.45% 65.11% 66.73% 65.92%
5 64.97% 65.46% 65.21% 63.91% 65.69% 64.80%
4.5 63.66% 64.19% 63.93% 62.73% 64.54% 63.63%
4 62.15% 62.78% 62.47% 61.50% 63.16% 62.33%
3.5 60.31% 61.16% 60.73% 59.86% 61.53% 60.69%
3 58.95% 59.69% 59.32% 58.53% 59.80% 59.17%
2.5 57.52% 58.33% 57.92% 57.16% 58.25% 57.70%
2 56.08% 57.21% 56.65% 55.69% 56.73% 56.21%
1.5 54.56% 56.13% 55.35% 54.32% 55.13% 54.72%
1 53.11% 54.84% 53.98% 52.91% 53.38% 53.14%
0.5 51.47% 53.17% 52.32% 51.46% 51.71% 51.58%
0 49.13% 50.87% 50.00% 50.03% 49.97% 50.00%

ऊपर दी गई तालिका हमें क्या बताती है? 6 से 7 अंकों के सामान्य टीज़र के लिए, बाहरी टीमें घरेलू टीमों से थोड़ी बेहतर हैं। यह यह भी दर्शाती है कि ओवरों का स्कोर अंडर से थोड़ा बेहतर है। ध्यान देने वाली सबसे महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि टीमों का स्कोर टीज़र टोटल से कहीं बेहतर है।

मेरी विज़ार्ड ऑफ़ वेगास साइट पर स्पोर्ट्स बुक समीक्षा बताती है कि सभी प्रमुख स्पोर्ट्स बुक परिवार टीज़र पर कितना भुगतान करते हैं। अगली तालिका सभी ज्ञात भुगतान तालिकाओं के अंतर्गत, सभी साइड और सभी कुल टीज़र के लिए 6, 6.5 और 7-पॉइंट टीज़र पर अपेक्षित रिटर्न दर्शाती है।

6-पॉइंट टीज़र की वापसी

6-बिंदु टीज़र

की पसंद भुगतान करता है पक्षों योग
2 10 से 11 -10.99% -13.77%
2 5 से 6 -14.52% -17.19%
3 9 से 5 तक -10.86% -15.00%
3 8 से 5 -17.23% -21.07%
3 7 से 5 -23.60% -27.14%
4 3 से 1 -13.05% -18.39%
4 14 से 5 -17.40% -22.47%
4 13 से 5 -21.75% -26.55%
4 5 से 2 -23.92% -28.59%
4 12 से 5 -26.09% -30.63%
4 17 से 10 -41.31% -44.91%
5 5 से 1 -10.95% -17.73%
5 9 से 2 -18.37% -24.58%
5 4 से 1 -25.79% -31.44%
5 3 से 1 -40.63% -45.15%
6 7 से 1 -18.92% -26.28%
6 13 से 2 -23.99% -30.88%
6 6 से 1 -29.06% -35.49%
6 9 से 2 -44.26% -49.31%
7 11 से 1 -16.96% -25.68%
7 10 से 1 -23.88% -31.87%
7 9 से 1 -30.80% -38.06%
7 8 से 1 -37.72% -44.26%
7 7 से 1 -44.64% -50.45%
8 15 से 1 -24.40% -33.40%
8 12 से 1 -38.58% -45.89%
8 10 से 1 -48.03% -54.21%

6.5-पॉइंट टीज़र रिटर्न

6.5-पॉइंट टीज़र

की पसंद भुगतान करता है पक्षों योग
2 5 से 6 -10.56% -13.23%
2 10 से 13 -13.69% -16.27%
2 10 से 14 -16.37% -18.87%
3 8 से 5 -11.40% -15.35%
3 3 से 2 -14.81% -18.60%
3 29 से 20 -16.51% -20.23%
3 7 से 5 -18.22% -21.86%
3 6 से 5 -25.03% -28.37%
4 5 से 2 -16.70% -21.60%
4 12 से 5 -19.08% -23.84%
4 11 से 5 -23.84% -28.32%
4 2 से 1 -28.60% -32.80%
5 4 से 1 -16.88% -22.95%
5 7 से 2 -25.19% -30.66%
6 7 से 1 -7.11% -15.19%
6 6 से 1 -18.72% -25.79%
6 11 से 2 -24.52% -31.10%
6 5 से 1 -30.33% -36.40%
7 9 से 1 -18.89% -27.07%
7 8 से 1 -27.01% -34.36%
8 12 से 1 -26.36% -34.78%
8 10 से 1 -37.69% -44.81%
8 9 से 1 -43.35% -49.83%

7-पॉइंट टीज़र की वापसी

7-बिंदु टीज़र

की पसंद भुगतान करता है पक्षों योग
2 10 से 13 -10.03% -12.53%
2 5 से 7 -12.83% -15.25%
2 2 से 3 -15.25% -17.60%
3 3 से 2 -9.34% -13.09%
3 7 से 5 -12.97% -16.57%
3 13 से 10 -16.60% -20.04%
3 6 से 5 -20.22% -23.52%
3 1 से 1 -27.48% -30.47%
4 2 से 1 -22.42% -26.67%
4 9 से 5 तक -27.60% -31.56%
5 7 से 2 -17.02% -22.66%
5 3 से 1 -26.24% -31.25%
5 5 से 2 -35.46% -39.85%
6 5 से 1 -21.10% -27.49%
6 9 से 2 -27.68% -33.53%
6 4 से 1 -34.25% -39.58%
7 8 से 1 -15.61% -23.52%
7 7 से 1 -24.98% -32.02%
7 13 से 2 -29.67% -36.27%
7 6 से 1 -34.36% -40.52%
8 11 से 1 -19.76% -28.30%
8 10 से 1 -26.45% -34.28%
8 9 से 1 -33.13% -40.25%
8 8 से 1 -39.82% -46.23%

जैसा कि आप देख सकते हैं, रैंडम पिक्स को टीज़ करने से ज़्यादातर समय हाउस एज बहुत ज़्यादा होता है। एक सामान्य नियम के तौर पर, टीज़र्स एक बेवकूफ़ी भरा दांव होता है। हालाँकि, थोड़े कौशल से आप ऑड्स को अपने पक्ष में कर सकते हैं।

वोंग टीज़र्स

एनएफएल में जीत के दो सबसे आम अंतर, अब तक, 3 और 7 अंक हैं। मेरे खेल सट्टेबाजी परिशिष्ट 2 में जीत के प्रत्येक अंतर की संभावना दिखाई गई है। संक्षेप में, 15.9% एनएफएल खेलों का फैसला ठीक 3 अंकों से होता है और 9.6% का फैसला 7 अंकों से होता है।

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अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ अधिक संभावनाएँ

अपनी उत्कृष्ट पुस्तक शार्प स्पोर्ट्स बेटिंग में, स्टैनफोर्ड वोंग ने लिखा है कि 6-पॉइंट टीज़र के साथ जीत के 3- और 7-पॉइंट के अंतर को पार करके, खिलाड़ी को बढ़त मिल सकती है। हालाँकि, उनकी पुस्तक अब कुछ पुरानी हो चुकी है, और इसके प्रकाशन के बाद से "वोंग टीज़र" के नाम से जाने जाने वाले परिणाम अच्छे नहीं रहे हैं। आइए उन पर एक नए सिरे से नज़र डालें। फिर से, इस पृष्ठ के सभी परिणाम 2000 के पहले सप्ताह से 2010 के चौथे सप्ताह तक के नियमित सीज़न खेलों पर आधारित हैं।

वोंग टीज़र्स

शर्त जीत खेल अनुपात जीतता है मानक विचलन
घरेलू अंडरडॉग्स 90 126 71.43% 3.98%
घरेलू पसंदीदा 109 144 75.69% 3.72%
दूर के अंडरडॉग्स 124 170 72.94% 3.42%
दूर के पसंदीदा 31 48 64.58% 6.44%
सभी घर 199 270 73.70% 2.72%
सभी दूर 155 218 71.10% 3.02%
सभी दलित 214 296 72.30% 2.59%
सभी पसंदीदा 140 192 72.92% 3.22%
सभी 354 488 72.54% 2.02%

ऊपर दी गई तालिका में वोंग टीज़र के जीतने की संभावना 64.58% से 75.69% तक दिखाई गई है। मुझे लगता है कि यह केवल एक यादृच्छिक भिन्नता है और 72.54% की कुल जीत दर एक महत्वपूर्ण आँकड़ा है। अगली तालिका टीमों की संख्या और जीतने वाली बाजी के भुगतान की संभावना के अनुसार वोंग टीज़र के अपेक्षित रिटर्न को दर्शाती है।

वोंग टीज़र की वापसी की उम्मीद

की पसंद भुगतान करता है अपेक्षित प्रतिफल
2 10 से 11 0.46%
2 5 से 6 -3.53%
3 9 से 5 तक 6.88%
3 8 से 5 -0.75%
3 7 से 5 -8.39%
4 3 से 1 10.76%
4 14 से 5 5.22%
4 13 से 5 -0.31%
4 5 से 2 -3.08%
4 12 से 5 -5.85%
4 17 से 10 -25.24%
5 5 से 1 20.52%
5 9 से 2 10.48%
5 4 से 1 0.44%
5 3 से 1 -19.65%
6 7 से 1 16.57%
6 13 से 2 9.29%
6 6 से 1 2.00%
6 9 से 2 -19.86%
7 11 से 1 26.84%
7 10 से 1 16.27%
7 9 से 1 5.70%
7 8 से 1 -4.87%
7 7 से 1 -15.44%
8 15 से 1 22.68%
8 12 से 1 -0.32%
8 10 से 1 -15.65%

ऊपर दी गई तालिका से पता चलता है कि क्लासिक 2-टीम टीज़र, जो 10 से 11 का भुगतान करता है, अब लगभग आधा प्रतिशत के खिलाड़ी लाभ के साथ, मुश्किल से ही काम का है। एक ऐसा लाभ पाने के लिए जिसकी चिंता करने लायक हो, आपको कम से कम तीन टीमों और प्रीमियम ऑड्स की आवश्यकता होती है। नेवादा में, जब मैंने आखिरी बार 2010 में जाँच की थी, तो एक अच्छे वोंग टीज़र का सबसे अच्छा मौका 4-टीम टीज़र है जो लेरॉयज़ स्पोर्ट्स बुक्स पर 3 से 1 का भुगतान करता है। आप मेरे लास वेगास स्पोर्ट्स बुक ग्रुप्स पेज का उपयोग करके पता लगा सकते हैं कि किन केसों में लेरॉयज़ आउटलेट है।

टीज़र कार्ड

मैंने हर टीज़र कार्ड की जाँच नहीं की है, लेकिन जिन्हें मैंने जाँचा है, वे मुझे एक घटिया दांव लगे। उदाहरण के लिए, बॉयड गेमिंग के "सुपर टीज़र" कार्ड पर विचार करें। 18 अक्टूबर, 2010 के मंडे नाइट फ़ुटबॉल मैच में, टाइटन्स +5 और जगुआर +12 थे। बराबरी हमेशा जीतती है, और हर पॉइंट स्प्रेड एक सम संख्या होती है, इसलिए यह टाइटन्स +5.5 और जगुआर +12.5 के बराबर है। यह गणितीय रूप से 9-पॉइंट टीज़र के बराबर है। नीचे दी गई तालिका में भुगतान तालिका, जीतने की संभावना और एक यादृच्छिक चयनकर्ता के लिए अपेक्षित रिटर्न दिखाया गया है।

बॉयड सुपर टीज़र

की पसंद भुगतान (एक के लिए) संभावना जीत अपेक्षित प्रतिफल
4 2 32.99% -34.01%
5 2.5 25.00% -37.49%
6 3.5 18.95% -33.67%
7 4.5 14.36% -35.37%
8 6 10.89% -34.69%
9 7.5 8.25% -38.13%
10 9.5 6.25% -40.60%
11 12 4.74% -43.14%
12 15 3.59% -46.13%
13 20 2.72% -45.56%
14 25 2.06% -48.43%
15 30 1.56% -53.10%

इसका नतीजा यह है कि यह सुपर टीज़र कार्ड एक घटिया दांव है। आप सोच सकते हैं, अगर खिलाड़ी सिर्फ़ मुख्य योगों को ही पार कर पाता तो क्या होता। मुझे लगा कि इससे कोई खास मदद नहीं मिली। हालात और भी बदतर हो जाते हैं, क्योंकि वे खिलाड़ी को कुल योगों पर सिर्फ़ 8.5 अंक देते हैं, जबकि निष्पक्षता के लिए उन्हें पक्षों के लिए ज़्यादा अंक देने चाहिए।

प्री-सीज़न टीज़र

ज़्यादातर स्पोर्ट्स बुक्स प्री-सीज़न मैचों पर टीज़र की अनुमति नहीं देते। हालाँकि, अगर आपको कोई ऐसा मिल जाए जो ऐसा करता हो, तो मुझे लगता है कि वोंग टीज़र एक मज़बूत दांव होगा। ऐसा इसलिए है क्योंकि आपको 1.5 से 2.5 स्प्रेड वाले कई मैच मिल जाएँगे, और ये मैच आमतौर पर कम स्कोर वाले होते हैं, और जीत के छोटे अंतर से तय होते हैं। मेरे पास प्री-सीज़न मैचों का डेटा नहीं है, इसलिए यह सिर्फ़ एक उदाहरण है।

द्वारा लिखित: Michael Shackleford